Intro.
When we speak, we don't just communicate facts, but also the measure of our certainty: while we say what happens, at the same time we can also express how sure we are of what we're stating. In Italian, this nuance can profoundly change the meaning of a sentence.
It's not enough to just say what happens; we can also say how sure we are of what we're affirming. It's like having a scale that goes from absolute certainty, let's say 100%, to a faint and tenuous possibility, let's say 10% or even less, when our certainty is shrouded in doubt.
With different Italian verbs and tenses, and with voice intonation, the Italian language offers a true palette of nuances that varies our statements: from certain, to probable, to possible, up to uncertain.
Let's imagine saying:
Marco è a casa.
Marco is at home.
How sure are we that Marco is actually at home? Let's see how this simple statement varies according to our certainty... or uncertainty!
1. Absolute Certainty: Present Indicative
When we are absolutely certain of something because we know it for sure, we state it with conviction. Our tone of voice is firm, calm, and without hesitation, and our expression leaves no room for doubt or uncertainty.
We don’t consciously think about it, yet when we translate this certainty into words, we naturally use the present indicative.
Example:
Marco è a casa.
Marco is at home.
The indicative mood is the mood of reality — of certain facts and objective information. It expresses with full confidence that Marco is at home, with no shade of doubt. We might imagine that Marco has just sent a message saying, “I’m at home.”
Consider other examples:
Luisa lavora in banca.
Luisa works at a bank.
Il film inizia alle nove.
The movie starts at nine.
La Terra gira attorno al Sole.
The Earth revolves around the Sun.
The indicative, therefore, is the neutral form of certainty — clear, factual, and free from any nuance of doubt or hesitation.
2. High Probability: "Dovere" in Indicative + Infinitive
When our certainty is no longer based on precise, verified facts, but rather on reasoning and clear evidence that lead us to an almost certain conclusion, we use dovere in the indicative followed by an infinitive.
Example:
Marco deve essere a casa.
Marco must be at home.
The verb mood is still the indicative. Deve essere a casa expresses a reasoned, almost mathematical kind of certainty, even if it hasn’t been verified. We can imagine not actually seeing Marco, but knowing that today he isn’t working, the window is open, the light is on, or the car is parked outside — in short, we have enough clues to conclude that Marco, with very high probability — say around 90% — is at home. Even the tone of voice conveys a line of reasoning and gives special emphasis to the verb to be in order to express the outcome of that reasoning.
Consider other examples:
C’è la luce accesa: Marta deve essere rientrata a casa.
The light is on: Marta must have come back home.
Andrea non risponde al telefono: deve essere ancora in riunione.
Andrea doesn't answer the phone: he must still be in a meeting.
This construction is typical of spoken language, when we reason aloud or make founded hypotheses.
3. Medium Probability: Simple Future Tense
Our certainty wavers, but we can still make conjectures based on logical reasoning — in other words, express a hypothesis, almost like making a reasonable bet. In this case, we use the simple future with an epistemic (that is, hypothetical) value. The future tense in Italian often serves to make a supposition about the present. At this point, our level of conviction has dropped to around 60–50%. Our tone of voice also changes — it gets lower and carries a hint of curiosity or imagination. The rhythm of our words slows down, like when we’re trying to guess something.
Example:
Marco sarà a casa.
Marco is probably at home.
The verb mood is still the indicative, because we’re still able to draw logical deductions from circumstances that seem reasonable. For instance, on a day of incessant rain, we might assume that Marco didn’t go out. We can’t be sure — it remains only a plausible conjecture.
4. Low Probability: "Dovere" in Conditional + Infinitive
Our certainty has now dropped well below 50% — let’s say somewhere between 40 and 30%. With the use of the conditional, we move into the realm of supposition and leave the domain of deduction behind. We can still base our statement on certain information or circumstances, but we have no way to verify our reasoning. It becomes only a cautious, unconfirmed assumption — something we prefer to express prudently. Even the tone of our voice rises slightly at the end of the sentence, hinting at an unspoken doubt or a silent question.
Example:
Marco dovrebbe essere a casa.
Marco should be at home.
It’s probable — it’s what we expect — but we have no concrete evidence to confirm it, so our tone naturally expresses doubt. We might imagine that Marco left the office some time ago and we expect he’s now home, but we don’t know whether he stopped to run some errands or had another commitment along the way.
Other examples:
Il treno dovrebbe arrivare alle 18:00.
The train should arrive at 6:00 PM.
Paolo dovrebbe conoscere la risposta.
Paolo should know the answer.
Both sentences express expected information. We have some reason to anticipate that the train will arrive at 6:00 PM — perhaps we’ve checked the company’s schedule — but we can’t be sure there haven’t been delays. Likewise, we suppose that Paolo knows the answer because he’s a knowledgeable person, but we can’t verify whether he knows that particular answer.
5. Possibility: "Potere" in Conditional + Infinitive
We’ve now left all certainty behind and entered the realm of mere possibility. On our scale of certainty, we’ve dropped to about 10% — or even less. At this stage, we no longer have any concrete clues or circumstances that allow us to make even minimal or unverifiable deductions. We simply express the idea that something might be true.
Example:
Marco potrebbe essere a casa.
Marco might be at home.
It’s a possibility, but we have no evidence to support the idea that Marco is actually at home. It’s equivalent to saying “maybe yes, maybe no” — we just don’t know. Here, our tone becomes cautious and restrained; we express a possibility for which we take no responsibility.
Other examples:
Domani potrebbe piovere.
It might rain tomorrow.
Quella notizia potrebbe essere falsa.
That news might be false.
Both sentences express simple possibilities. It may rain tomorrow, and the news may be false — but we have no way of knowing how likely these events really are, since there’s no evidence to support either assumption.
6. Strong Doubt: Unreal Hypothesis - Type II Conditional Period
Our certainty is now practically at zero. It’s as if we were overturning our original statement — “Marco is at home” — and excluding that possibility altogether. What we’re expressing here is only a hypothesis, accompanied by a strong sense of doubt.
Example:
Se Marco fosse a casa, la luce sarebbe accesa, risponderebbe al telefono, ecc.
If Marco were at home, the light would be on, he would answer the phone, and so on.
In this case, we are almost 99% sure that Marco is not at home, because all the expected circumstances that would confirm his presence are missing. There remains only a minimal 1% chance — negligible and highly unlikely — that Marco is indeed at home and that those confirming details simply aren’t occurring.
7. Complete Scale: From Certainty to Doubt with Italian Verbs
If we now place all the sentences in sequence, we can see our scale of certainty, which moves gradually from absolute certainty (100%) to well-founded doubt (1%).
8. Past Situations: Italian Verbs Certainty in Past Tenses
Everything we’ve seen so far concerns the present — that is, we started from a statement about a fact, event, or action taking place at the moment it’s being expressed.
The same considerations about the degree of certainty conveyed through the choice of Italian verbs can also be applied when referring to a past event. In this case, however, the moods and verb tenses adjust according to specific rules of tense agreement (or sequence of tenses).
9. Conclusion
The Italian language, through its moods and verb tenses, allows us not only to describe facts but also to shade them with the nuances of our conviction. Every grammatical choice becomes a brushstroke that paints the degree of certainty or doubt with which we view reality — from the secure, neutral tones of the indicative, to the cautious and hypothetical hues of the conditional, and finally to the conditional clause, which completely reverses the perspective.
Learning to recognize and use these nuances means learning to communicate not only what happens, but also how we perceive it — making our Italian richer, more precise, and more attuned to the countless shades of real life.
Adriana Rossi is a certified teacher of Italian as a foreign language from Rome, Italy, and has been part of the Giulia team since 2024. With a Modern Literature degree and advanced studies in Modern Philology, she specializes in tracing the origins and evolution of Italian words, bringing expertise in diction and expressive reading to help preserve and share Italy’s linguistic heritage with learners worldwide.
